Traditional and specialist retailers are in a bad way at the moment. They are stuck between a rock and a hard place.
On the one side, they have the giant supermarket chains squeezing them on prices by ever expanding their product lines to things such as DVD players and consumer items. The other side, they have internet retailers offering greater convenience and lower prices.
This type of position prompted one analyst to describe UK music retailer HMV's position as being one of 'terminal decline'.
But is retail dead yet? Well, the answer is no and it never will be. But they will have to innovate and innovate fast or it will be time to go to that great check-out in the sky.
The latest buzz strategy for retail is for them to entertain as well as sell products. That will work! Just chuck in a few pinball machines next to those racks of CDs and that will bring them in droves. I think a better strategy would be discovery.
Retailers: look to the internet, and look to consumers, and ye shall find inspiration...
Friday, 23 March 2007
Excellent video
Here is a great video about web 2.0. Its old as hell, but if you haven't seen it already, and you're involved in the online industry, you need to.
The embed link on its youtube page doesnt seem to be working so you'll just have to settle for a link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gmP4nk0EOE
The embed link on its youtube page doesnt seem to be working so you'll just have to settle for a link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gmP4nk0EOE
Disruptive Technologies: Who's next? (part 1)
Great technologies cause disruption in industries. It is evident in every aspect of our everyday lives. Steam engines and Internal combustion engines did it to horses and humans (for powering machines). Automobiles displaced horses for transport. Desktop publishing displaced traditional publishing. The CD to the cassette tape. MP3 to the CD. Crunchy Nut cereal to regular cornflakes.
I could go on, but i would be simply copying the entry on disruptive technology in Wikipedia, which of course, has an extremely thorough entry on disruptive technology. Of course, i should add one last example though, wikis displacing encyclopedias.
In recent times, the industries that have been hardest hit (i should say the biggest or most well known industries, as lots of small ones have been hit also but would not be as well publicised) by disruptive technologies or innovations are:
Music
Telecommunications
Television
Music is the best known case, and Napster was its name. Traditional music retailers who haven't packed it in already, such as HMV, are in a dog of a position. They need to innovate now or face oblivion. Telecommunications companies are feeling the effect of Skype, and mobile operators will feel it the most when broadband arrives on mobile phones. Television audiences continue to fragment and companies such as Youtube, Narrowstep and Brightcove will further make the internet the prime place to watch video.
So who is next?
Here is my list:
Advertising
Video Production
Website Design
Fashion
The first two are pretty easy to identify, but the second two may be a bit ahead of the curve. Rest assured these sitting ducks will feel the effects soon. More in my next post why!
I could go on, but i would be simply copying the entry on disruptive technology in Wikipedia, which of course, has an extremely thorough entry on disruptive technology. Of course, i should add one last example though, wikis displacing encyclopedias.
In recent times, the industries that have been hardest hit (i should say the biggest or most well known industries, as lots of small ones have been hit also but would not be as well publicised) by disruptive technologies or innovations are:
Music
Telecommunications
Television
Music is the best known case, and Napster was its name. Traditional music retailers who haven't packed it in already, such as HMV, are in a dog of a position. They need to innovate now or face oblivion. Telecommunications companies are feeling the effect of Skype, and mobile operators will feel it the most when broadband arrives on mobile phones. Television audiences continue to fragment and companies such as Youtube, Narrowstep and Brightcove will further make the internet the prime place to watch video.
So who is next?
Here is my list:
Advertising
Video Production
Website Design
Fashion
The first two are pretty easy to identify, but the second two may be a bit ahead of the curve. Rest assured these sitting ducks will feel the effects soon. More in my next post why!
The Cardinal Blogging Sin
Blogs are a hungry beast. They require daily attention if you want them to grow in the way they should, much like a bonzai plant. But i, much like Mr Miyagi have alot of other things going on, and whilst i am not currently training a young Italian-American kid in the ways of Karate, i did recently go on a snowboarding trip and forgot all about the erstwhile world for a moment.
So now, i am back, and promise to blog more often. Check out my next post, i will write it right now (i promise!), about disruptive technologies, the industries that have fallen before it, and the industries to come...
So now, i am back, and promise to blog more often. Check out my next post, i will write it right now (i promise!), about disruptive technologies, the industries that have fallen before it, and the industries to come...
Thursday, 8 March 2007
What Google is really doing with all that 'dark fibre'
You've probably read that Google is buying up dark fibre in articles such as here, here and a good one here. So what are Google up to?
Theories abound from Artificial Intelligence to the popular theory of the moment, as a defence against net neutrality, should it no longer become a benefit we all enjoy. This theory works great for them because it makes us all think they just want to give the world access to information, like they said when they IPOed.
Do you really think Google would spend a whole whack of money just incase some network owners make a few bits of data move around a bit slower? Well yes, they do have just a few spare dollars at the moment, and that is trivialising the issue somewhat, but i have a different theory.
Video advertising online will be the next big, big thing. The only reason its not the biggest thing right now, is because advertising agencies are very slow adopters, and fantastically efficient road blocks to big brand marketing budgets. Google, of course, know a thing or two about internet advertising, and have certain rights to a very small amount of content. So with all that dark fibre, they can move video content very cheaply around the internet, thus giving them a cutting edge reason for content owners to host their video content with Google. Of course, only if you allow Google to sell the advertising around it.
So of course, Google's buying of dark fibre is for Google to control video advertising on the internet. And frankly, i think this is only a matter of time. They've already got all the worlds content (youtube), and they have the network resources to host and stream it. Mark my words, it wont be too long before Google announce an app for creating video ads which will be inserted amongst your uploaded content ...
Theories abound from Artificial Intelligence to the popular theory of the moment, as a defence against net neutrality, should it no longer become a benefit we all enjoy. This theory works great for them because it makes us all think they just want to give the world access to information, like they said when they IPOed.
Do you really think Google would spend a whole whack of money just incase some network owners make a few bits of data move around a bit slower? Well yes, they do have just a few spare dollars at the moment, and that is trivialising the issue somewhat, but i have a different theory.
Video advertising online will be the next big, big thing. The only reason its not the biggest thing right now, is because advertising agencies are very slow adopters, and fantastically efficient road blocks to big brand marketing budgets. Google, of course, know a thing or two about internet advertising, and have certain rights to a very small amount of content. So with all that dark fibre, they can move video content very cheaply around the internet, thus giving them a cutting edge reason for content owners to host their video content with Google. Of course, only if you allow Google to sell the advertising around it.
So of course, Google's buying of dark fibre is for Google to control video advertising on the internet. And frankly, i think this is only a matter of time. They've already got all the worlds content (youtube), and they have the network resources to host and stream it. Mark my words, it wont be too long before Google announce an app for creating video ads which will be inserted amongst your uploaded content ...
Wednesday, 28 February 2007
Interesting Article
This was passed onto me by a friend from the Wall Street Journal... i'm not sure how old it is but its another validation of the online video market. 2007 will be huge for online video.
So Popular it triples the viewers of American Idol.
An investment of $11.5 million in this new entertainment has already returned 14,247% within a year
And Forbes thinks it could eventually "be more profitable than Amazon.com and eBay"
It was a blockbuster night, surpassing the most optimistic predictions.
On Tuesday, January 16, 2007, America Idol started its sixth season. More than 37.3 million watched the season's premier. It was huge. In fact, it was the biggest audience in Fox's history. Nothing came close. However, on that same day, another "show" tripled America's Idol's viewers. To put it into perspective, one out of every 3 Americans watched it. I'm talking about, of course, the website YouTubeYouTube is an entertainment and Internet blockbuster. Every week, 700 million users watch videos on YouTube. Every single week! YouTube gets so much traffic that last year Google purchased YouTube for $1.65 billion.
On Tuesday, January 16, 2007, America Idol started its sixth season. More than 37.3 million watched the season's premier. It was huge. In fact, it was the biggest audience in Fox's history. Nothing came close. However, on that same day, another "show" tripled America's Idol's viewers. To put it into perspective, one out of every 3 Americans watched it. I'm talking about, of course, the website YouTube
YouTube is an entertainment and Internet blockbuster. Every week, 700 million users watch videos on YouTube. Every single week!
YouTube gets so much traffic that last year Google purchased YouTube for $1.65 billion.
One of the original investors in YouTube is said to be walking away with $460 million... after giving YouTube $11.5 million in capital. This has launched a mega bull market in online video. Let me tell you why online video is the wave of the future for the Internet.
Birth of a New Technology Bull Market
Even before the YouTube buyout this past October, the industry buzz was that online video was about to explode into the stratosphere... and lead technology into a new bull market. I couldn't agree more. Let me explain...
YouTube was founded just 19-months ago by a couple of code writers from Silicon Valley. During that time, the company remained private. So when Google came knocking with $1.65 billion, Wall Street got left out in the cold. There was no way for Wall Street or individual investors like you and me to profit from it. I mean think about that for a second. In just a year-and-a-half, a company went from just an idea with $0 valuation to one of hottest websites worth $1.65 billion. That's a money-making tipping point, my friend. How? Because Wall Street missed the boat on YouTube. But it won't miss it the next time around. As you read this, Wall Street investment bankers are scrambling to find online video providers to invest in and to take public.
Why? Because online video is the Holy Grail of the Internet. In fact, as early as 2000, movie rental giant Blockbuster was talking about providing movies for download off the Internet. But it was way too soon. The technology just wasn't there to allow for a quick download. Downloading Saving Private Ryan would take 7-hours. Who wants to wait for that?!? Today, however, that's all changed. With DSL, cable and high-speed wireless connections, online video is booming. Check this out: 110 million people download 250 million online videos every single day! As a result, online video advertising is expected to skyrocket. Take a look:
So Popular it triples the viewers of American Idol.
An investment of $11.5 million in this new entertainment has already returned 14,247% within a year
And Forbes thinks it could eventually "be more profitable than Amazon.com and eBay"
It was a blockbuster night, surpassing the most optimistic predictions.
On Tuesday, January 16, 2007, America Idol started its sixth season. More than 37.3 million watched the season's premier. It was huge. In fact, it was the biggest audience in Fox's history. Nothing came close. However, on that same day, another "show" tripled America's Idol's viewers. To put it into perspective, one out of every 3 Americans watched it. I'm talking about, of course, the website YouTubeYouTube is an entertainment and Internet blockbuster. Every week, 700 million users watch videos on YouTube. Every single week! YouTube gets so much traffic that last year Google purchased YouTube for $1.65 billion.
On Tuesday, January 16, 2007, America Idol started its sixth season. More than 37.3 million watched the season's premier. It was huge. In fact, it was the biggest audience in Fox's history. Nothing came close. However, on that same day, another "show" tripled America's Idol's viewers. To put it into perspective, one out of every 3 Americans watched it. I'm talking about, of course, the website YouTube
YouTube is an entertainment and Internet blockbuster. Every week, 700 million users watch videos on YouTube. Every single week!
YouTube gets so much traffic that last year Google purchased YouTube for $1.65 billion.
One of the original investors in YouTube is said to be walking away with $460 million... after giving YouTube $11.5 million in capital. This has launched a mega bull market in online video. Let me tell you why online video is the wave of the future for the Internet.
Birth of a New Technology Bull Market
Even before the YouTube buyout this past October, the industry buzz was that online video was about to explode into the stratosphere... and lead technology into a new bull market. I couldn't agree more. Let me explain...
YouTube was founded just 19-months ago by a couple of code writers from Silicon Valley. During that time, the company remained private. So when Google came knocking with $1.65 billion, Wall Street got left out in the cold. There was no way for Wall Street or individual investors like you and me to profit from it. I mean think about that for a second. In just a year-and-a-half, a company went from just an idea with $0 valuation to one of hottest websites worth $1.65 billion. That's a money-making tipping point, my friend. How? Because Wall Street missed the boat on YouTube. But it won't miss it the next time around. As you read this, Wall Street investment bankers are scrambling to find online video providers to invest in and to take public.
Why? Because online video is the Holy Grail of the Internet. In fact, as early as 2000, movie rental giant Blockbuster was talking about providing movies for download off the Internet. But it was way too soon. The technology just wasn't there to allow for a quick download. Downloading Saving Private Ryan would take 7-hours. Who wants to wait for that?!? Today, however, that's all changed. With DSL, cable and high-speed wireless connections, online video is booming. Check this out: 110 million people download 250 million online videos every single day! As a result, online video advertising is expected to skyrocket. Take a look:
- From less than 1 million in 2005 to over 50 million unique viewers per month watching UGV (user-generated video) online today
- Overall video ad spending is estimated to grow from $640 million in 2007 to $1.5 billion in 2009
- Fastest single growing area within advertising sector
- Internet video grew by 50.2% in 2005 to 17.9 billion streams and is forecast to grow by 32% in 2006 to over 23 billion served
This is a revolution. And Wall Street knows it. I believe the next 2 to 3 years are going to be boom times for technology stocks in general, and online video stocks in particular. But here's the problem: can you name me a stock that's a pure play on online video?
You can't, because they didn't exist. Until recently. A few months ago, the very first online video site stock started trading. I immediately recommended it to my readers. We got in around $4 a share. Yesterday it made a record high of $5.25. But I think it's going to $20. This assumes, of course, that this $5 online video stock isn't acquired first by some big media company. We've already seen this with YouTube, which you know was acquired by Google for $1.65 billion.
But did you know that other online video and "social networking" sites are being snapped up at huge premiums? These sites are hotter than Super Bowl tickets. Take a look:
- News Corp. buys MySpace for $580 million in 2005
- AtomFilms acquired for $200 million by MTV/Viacom on August 10, 2006
- Grouper.com bought out by Sony Pictures for $65 million on August 22, 2006
- YouTube acquired by Google for $1.65 billion
It's easy to see why Wall Street is salivating to get a piece of the action. With traffic to these websites growing every week, advertisement dollars going into online video are expected to grow dramatically.
This stock is going to run... and run hard.
Monday, 26 February 2007
Communities Dominate?
Recently I had the privelege of receiving a signed copy of a book called Communities Dominate Brands by Alan Moore. Its a fantastic book. I'm about three quarters of the way through and has certainly been revelationary in parts for me. Its opened my eyes to the power of communities online, and the effect our connectedness is having on businesses, brands and society in general.
I'm struggling to remember all the great facts i've read and i really should have got the highlighter out (do ppl highlight things anymore these days?), but some great observations and statistics you'll find in the book:
I'm struggling to remember all the great facts i've read and i really should have got the highlighter out (do ppl highlight things anymore these days?), but some great observations and statistics you'll find in the book:
- Today's consumer is informed and empowered. Just 4% will remain loyal to a brand if they find a better offer
- 600 million mobile phones will be sold this year
- Only 1% of movies made each year are shown in the USA
- Blogs are an incredibly efficient form of word of mouth marketing
- Mobiles are the 7th mass media (see Nokia's announcement just yesterday around their new advertising service here)
- People embrace what they create
There's plenty more in there so i would recommend getting yourself a copy. You'll also find some good reading at Alans blog, Communities Dominate Blogs
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
