Tuesday 3 April 2007

The Death of the Record Label Industry

I imagine if blogging was around back in 1999 (were they?), there would have been a few posts with the exact title of this one. They would have surfaced very soon after Napster unveiled itself on an unsuspecting public. Napster would have rocketed throughout the blogosphere being proclaimed as a 'revolutionary service heralding the end of the music industry as we know it'. Record industry types would have scoffed at the suggestion, and gone back to their powdery white mirrors.

Fast forward to 2007 and those record industry types would still be in the same situation they are in today, so i guess the moral of the story is: technological change is inevitable.

Record labels are in a quandary right now. It was one of the first highly visible industries to feel the effects of that killer disruptive technology, digitalisation, and it continues to feel those effects today. File sharing and peer to peer continue to run riot, and now bands, just like consumers, are more empowered than ever, and have the ability to distribute their music and market themselves globally, without the need for a record label. I believe the options are now so comprehensive, that in a couple of years time, the record label industry as we know it will cease to exist.

I'm so confident of this, i have even started a countdown to the death of the record label industry as we know it. See below:




I have also placed it in the bottom right hand corner of my website, in my widget panel, where it shall stay until such day as i am proven wrong.

So why do i think it will die a humble death then?

In general terms, i believe that web 2.0 is empowering bands or music groups to distribute their music and market themselves like never before. To be more specific, i feel applications like Indiestore and Blastmymusic (please add more into the comments below if you know of others, these are just the two i've found with my limited research budget ;) ) that enable a band, and their fans, to sell music via their website, myspace or blog, will empower bands like never before to distribute music across the internet and keep the lions share of the money for themselves.

Both these services offer a widget which makes it very easy for anyone with limited knowledge of html to insert a promotional store onto their website. This means a band can sell their music via their own website, and a band's fans can do the same. This creates an army of loyal sales agents for each band, expanding their reach. There are numerous other 'outlets' bands can sell their music through as well, Itunes of course being one, and another outlet will be via Myspace itself, who have announced recently they will allow unsigned bands to sell music via their myspace pages. With 106 million users, myspace will certainly challenge the dominance of Itunes.

Marketing will be easy. Bands have Youtube, where recently one band, OkGo, has won an award for their music video which has been seen over 14 million times. Myspace is a double whammy in that its a great place to market music and soon it will be a great place to sell it. Radio DJs in the future will become more like editors and choose what music they play, rather than pandering to the record labels. And music discovery services like Pandora, charts and social music services will aid in the exposure process.

So where do record labels fit in that process? They don't. If you're a new band right now, you could make it without them. But lets give the record labels a few years while they cling for dear life. My prediction is for early 2009, the record label industry will be dead.

(The long awaited) Disruptive technologies part 2

This post does go back to the 23/03/07 so i'm sure there were a few of you waiting ... surely?

Anyway, the original post is here, and i promised to tell you why i felt certain industries will be the next to feel the effects of disruptive technology.

So here again are those four industries and the reasons why i believe they will start to feel the effects of disruptive technology very soon:
-
Advertising - I'm sure i'm not the first to predict their downfall. Advertising agencies are clinging to their cash cow (read: TV advertising) while all the data suggests that the mass market has moved on. Then they have disruptive technology converging on them from all fronts: User generated ads via Current.tv and Thought Equity; traditional television commercial ad booking service via Spotrunner. Video advertising on the internet via Narrowstep's Adserver and Tangozebra etc. Ad agencies need to innovate now and start to engage audiences. When was the last time you remembered the brand being advertised on a funny TV ad?

Video Production - Through economies of scale more than anything, the price of video camera technology has come down. Way down. It is now £500-£1000 to buy a good HD video camera (superior to Beta or mini DV). User generated content is the new fad and Internet video has unleashed the inner creative in everyone - expect a new breed of production companies to enter the fray with the barriers to entry (production equipment worth tens of thousands of pounds) now significantly reduced.

Website Design - Blogs, web 2.0, asp software, widgets, mashups. It is now easier than ever to create a credible web presence without the need to engage a web design agency. Complex website such as social networks can be created for free or at very little cost by web 2.0 application providers (my next post will list these), and widgets can manage lots of fun stuff like polls, calendars etc. Blogs get more influential by the day, i think when Hilary Clinton announces her run for the presidency via her blog it says something. The need for high-end websites will always be there but the low end of the market has effectively been cut out.

Fashion - Here is one you might not expect, but once again i allude to the creativity of the human race being unleashed by user generated content on the internet. Services such as Spreadshirt allow anyone to upload a design and sell their clothing on their myspace page, with production and delivery fulfilled by spreadshirt. This is an amazing business model and means that anyone can compete with the big fashion houses. With young consumers ever more distrusting of brands, and online retail growing all the time, expect more youngsters who grow up with this service to buy clothing from their peer group and fashion to feel the effects of disruptive technology.

Now, i have one more disruptive technology to blog about, but i think it deserves it's own little post. I'm going to call the death of an industry, by one little piece of disruptive technology, so stay tuned, i will post it for you later today.

Thursday 29 March 2007

BBC TV goes mobile

The BBC has announced a trial of mobile television services on the Orange, Vodafone and 3 networks in the UK. It's terrific they are exploring new areas but this is hardly something a public service broadcaster should be doing in today's media climate.

The 3G viewing experience in the UK is still poor and little used by the general public, and until broadband is readily available on phones and prices for mobile internet access come down (or mobile operators decide to stop confusing consumers), it will remain so. So why a public service broadcaster should foray into this area is beyond me. For my mind, they are a commercial hypocrite, this is the act of a company with public service pretensions, and example of how grossly over-funded they are.

Monday 26 March 2007

Blog Goggles

Intrinsically different to the other type of goggles i often wear on a bender night out, Blog Goggles is a new directory of blogging professionals, categorized and rated by their peers. It seems like a great service in theory, but i was a little dismayed to find they didnt have a category for internet television or online video, which is generally what i waffle on about here, so i have placed myself under the 'social marketing' category.

Anyway, you can rate my blog by clicking on the new icon at the top right of the page, or here it is below. Sounds like a good little service i would recommend to all fellow bloggers.


Rate me on Bloggoggle

Great video, now embedded

Sunday 25 March 2007

Where every hour is amateur hour

Now here is a site that will get no short amount of infamy. Justin.tv has just gone six days old and features a young entrepreneur, Justin Kan, streaming video of his life, live on the internet. The twist, in comparison to previous 'watch my life' web cam efforts is Justin has a camera mounted to his head, and you can watch him 24-7 no matter where he goes.

Not kidding.

Its a fantastic concept, and i will be amazed to see where this goes. He's already gotten himself a front page on Digg which must have put his viewing figures through the roof. It surely won't be long til Letterman comes calling and then i wonder what will happen? Will people want to watch the interview on television or over the internet via Justin.tv? That will be quite a showdown between the old big daddy medium and the new unruly one.

Either way, i think its hilarious. The servers will surely crash at some stage if it really starts to take off. But, if for nothing else, its an amazing, crazy, internet 5.0 idea.

BTW, my subject heading is a great quote taken from the site itself.

Saturday 24 March 2007

The Tipping Point

The NBC/News Corp announcement is nothing short of THE tipping point in the online video marketspace. Internet television has just gone mainstream. Yes, we've all been watching Youtube for a while now, and short from video from whatever other video sites might have briefly taken our fancy. But this announcement is about long form, advertiser funded, online video content, for which very few media companies have any sort of strategy or solution in place. Expect a rash of activity over the coming months as they fall over themselves to find one.

Content companies, start your engines, you might want to go to market with haste - the great land grab for internet video eyeballs has just begun.

Friday 23 March 2007

Making Retail Relevant

Traditional and specialist retailers are in a bad way at the moment. They are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

On the one side, they have the giant supermarket chains squeezing them on prices by ever expanding their product lines to things such as DVD players and consumer items. The other side, they have internet retailers offering greater convenience and lower prices.

This type of position prompted one analyst to describe UK music retailer HMV's position as being one of 'terminal decline'.

But is retail dead yet? Well, the answer is no and it never will be. But they will have to innovate and innovate fast or it will be time to go to that great check-out in the sky.

The latest buzz strategy for retail is for them to entertain as well as sell products. That will work! Just chuck in a few pinball machines next to those racks of CDs and that will bring them in droves. I think a better strategy would be discovery.

Retailers: look to the internet, and look to consumers, and ye shall find inspiration...

Excellent video

Here is a great video about web 2.0. Its old as hell, but if you haven't seen it already, and you're involved in the online industry, you need to.

The embed link on its youtube page doesnt seem to be working so you'll just have to settle for a link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gmP4nk0EOE

Disruptive Technologies: Who's next? (part 1)

Great technologies cause disruption in industries. It is evident in every aspect of our everyday lives. Steam engines and Internal combustion engines did it to horses and humans (for powering machines). Automobiles displaced horses for transport. Desktop publishing displaced traditional publishing. The CD to the cassette tape. MP3 to the CD. Crunchy Nut cereal to regular cornflakes.

I could go on, but i would be simply copying the entry on disruptive technology in Wikipedia, which of course, has an extremely thorough entry on disruptive technology. Of course, i should add one last example though, wikis displacing encyclopedias.

In recent times, the industries that have been hardest hit (i should say the biggest or most well known industries, as lots of small ones have been hit also but would not be as well publicised) by disruptive technologies or innovations are:

Music
Telecommunications
Television

Music is the best known case, and Napster was its name. Traditional music retailers who haven't packed it in already, such as HMV, are in a dog of a position. They need to innovate now or face oblivion. Telecommunications companies are feeling the effect of Skype, and mobile operators will feel it the most when broadband arrives on mobile phones. Television audiences continue to fragment and companies such as Youtube, Narrowstep and Brightcove will further make the internet the prime place to watch video.

So who is next?

Here is my list:

Advertising
Video Production
Website Design
Fashion

The first two are pretty easy to identify, but the second two may be a bit ahead of the curve. Rest assured these sitting ducks will feel the effects soon. More in my next post why!

The Cardinal Blogging Sin

Blogs are a hungry beast. They require daily attention if you want them to grow in the way they should, much like a bonzai plant. But i, much like Mr Miyagi have alot of other things going on, and whilst i am not currently training a young Italian-American kid in the ways of Karate, i did recently go on a snowboarding trip and forgot all about the erstwhile world for a moment.

So now, i am back, and promise to blog more often. Check out my next post, i will write it right now (i promise!), about disruptive technologies, the industries that have fallen before it, and the industries to come...

Thursday 8 March 2007

What Google is really doing with all that 'dark fibre'

You've probably read that Google is buying up dark fibre in articles such as here, here and a good one here. So what are Google up to?

Theories abound from Artificial Intelligence to the popular theory of the moment, as a defence against net neutrality, should it no longer become a benefit we all enjoy. This theory works great for them because it makes us all think they just want to give the world access to information, like they said when they IPOed.

Do you really think Google would spend a whole whack of money just incase some network owners make a few bits of data move around a bit slower? Well yes, they do have just a few spare dollars at the moment, and that is trivialising the issue somewhat, but i have a different theory.

Video advertising online will be the next big, big thing. The only reason its not the biggest thing right now, is because advertising agencies are very slow adopters, and fantastically efficient road blocks to big brand marketing budgets. Google, of course, know a thing or two about internet advertising, and have certain rights to a very small amount of content. So with all that dark fibre, they can move video content very cheaply around the internet, thus giving them a cutting edge reason for content owners to host their video content with Google. Of course, only if you allow Google to sell the advertising around it.

So of course, Google's buying of dark fibre is for Google to control video advertising on the internet. And frankly, i think this is only a matter of time. They've already got all the worlds content (youtube), and they have the network resources to host and stream it. Mark my words, it wont be too long before Google announce an app for creating video ads which will be inserted amongst your uploaded content ...

Wednesday 28 February 2007

Interesting Article

This was passed onto me by a friend from the Wall Street Journal... i'm not sure how old it is but its another validation of the online video market. 2007 will be huge for online video.

So Popular it triples the viewers of American Idol.
An investment of $11.5 million in this new entertainment has already returned 14,247% within a year
And Forbes thinks it could eventually "be more profitable than
Amazon.com and eBay"

It was a blockbuster night, surpassing the most optimistic predictions.
On Tuesday, January 16, 2007, America Idol started its sixth season. More than 37.3 million watched the season's premier. It was huge. In fact, it was the biggest audience in Fox's history. Nothing came close. However, on that same day, another "show" tripled America's Idol's viewers. To put it into perspective, one out of every 3 Americans watched it. I'm talking about, of course, the website YouTubeYouTube is an entertainment and Internet blockbuster. Every week, 700 million users watch videos on YouTube. Every single week! YouTube gets so much traffic that last year Google purchased YouTube for $1.65 billion.

On Tuesday, January 16, 2007, America Idol started its sixth season. More than 37.3 million watched the season's premier. It was huge. In fact, it was the biggest audience in Fox's history. Nothing came close. However, on that same day, another "show" tripled America's Idol's viewers. To put it into perspective, one out of every 3 Americans watched it. I'm talking about, of course, the website YouTube

YouTube is an entertainment and Internet blockbuster. Every week, 700 million users watch videos on YouTube. Every single week!
YouTube gets so much traffic that last year Google purchased YouTube for $1.65 billion.
One of the original investors in YouTube is said to be walking away with $460 million... after giving YouTube $11.5 million in capital. This has launched a mega bull market in online video. Let me tell you why online video is the wave of the future for the Internet.

Birth of a New Technology Bull Market
Even before the YouTube buyout this past October, the industry buzz was that online video was about to explode into the stratosphere... and lead technology into a new bull market. I couldn't agree more. Let me explain...

YouTube was founded just 19-months ago by a couple of code writers from Silicon Valley. During that time, the company remained private. So when Google came knocking with $1.65 billion, Wall Street got left out in the cold. There was no way for Wall Street or individual investors like you and me to profit from it. I mean think about that for a second. In just a year-and-a-half, a company went from just an idea with $0 valuation to one of hottest websites worth $1.65 billion. That's a money-making tipping point, my friend. How? Because Wall Street missed the boat on YouTube. But it won't miss it the next time around. As you read this, Wall Street investment bankers are scrambling to find online video providers to invest in and to take public.

Why? Because online video is the Holy Grail of the Internet. In fact, as early as 2000, movie rental giant Blockbuster was talking about providing movies for download off the Internet. But it was way too soon. The technology just wasn't there to allow for a quick download. Downloading Saving Private Ryan would take 7-hours. Who wants to wait for that?!? Today, however, that's all changed. With DSL, cable and high-speed wireless connections, online video is booming. Check this out: 110 million people download 250 million online videos every single day! As a result, online video advertising is expected to skyrocket. Take a look:
  • From less than 1 million in 2005 to over 50 million unique viewers per month watching UGV (user-generated video) online today
  • Overall video ad spending is estimated to grow from $640 million in 2007 to $1.5 billion in 2009
  • Fastest single growing area within advertising sector
  • Internet video grew by 50.2% in 2005 to 17.9 billion streams and is forecast to grow by 32% in 2006 to over 23 billion served

This is a revolution. And Wall Street knows it. I believe the next 2 to 3 years are going to be boom times for technology stocks in general, and online video stocks in particular. But here's the problem: can you name me a stock that's a pure play on online video?

You can't, because they didn't exist. Until recently. A few months ago, the very first online video site stock started trading. I immediately recommended it to my readers. We got in around $4 a share. Yesterday it made a record high of $5.25. But I think it's going to $20. This assumes, of course, that this $5 online video stock isn't acquired first by some big media company. We've already seen this with YouTube, which you know was acquired by Google for $1.65 billion.
But did you know that other online video and "social networking" sites are being snapped up at huge premiums? These sites are hotter than Super Bowl tickets. Take a look:

  • News Corp. buys MySpace for $580 million in 2005
  • AtomFilms acquired for $200 million by MTV/Viacom on August 10, 2006
  • Grouper.com bought out by Sony Pictures for $65 million on August 22, 2006
  • YouTube acquired by Google for $1.65 billion

It's easy to see why Wall Street is salivating to get a piece of the action. With traffic to these websites growing every week, advertisement dollars going into online video are expected to grow dramatically.
This stock is going to run... and run hard.

Monday 26 February 2007

Communities Dominate?

Recently I had the privelege of receiving a signed copy of a book called Communities Dominate Brands by Alan Moore. Its a fantastic book. I'm about three quarters of the way through and has certainly been revelationary in parts for me. Its opened my eyes to the power of communities online, and the effect our connectedness is having on businesses, brands and society in general.

I'm struggling to remember all the great facts i've read and i really should have got the highlighter out (do ppl highlight things anymore these days?), but some great observations and statistics you'll find in the book:
  • Today's consumer is informed and empowered. Just 4% will remain loyal to a brand if they find a better offer
  • 600 million mobile phones will be sold this year
  • Only 1% of movies made each year are shown in the USA
  • Blogs are an incredibly efficient form of word of mouth marketing
  • Mobiles are the 7th mass media (see Nokia's announcement just yesterday around their new advertising service here)
  • People embrace what they create

There's plenty more in there so i would recommend getting yourself a copy. You'll also find some good reading at Alans blog, Communities Dominate Blogs

The Not So Inevitable Second Blog

So I've managed to get past 1st base, but I'm not on a date and nor am i playing baseball.

I've managed to post a second blog, which is a quite an achievement really, as the number of inactive blogs are reportedly outnumbering active blogs these days. I suspect this must include spam blogs on the inactive side, otherwise there really are an enormous amount of quitters out there. Send them all to rehab I say.

So for this blog entry its back to its pre-tangent course and the archetypal first blog entry: what the hell is this blog all about?

This blog is about brands and media in the age of online video and digital culture. Its about communities and marketing in the connected world. Its about me participating in the new participatory culture.

I will do my upmost to post often and write about interesting things. The waffle will be kept to a minimum. Hmmm ... onto the next post!

Sunday 25 February 2007

The Inevitable First Blog

I believe i had an aborted first attempt at creating a blog about global warming, so that subject heading may not be entirely true. Perhaps then, i should use this blog entry to explore any brands that may benefit or evolve out of the advent of global warming? Here i go, off on a tangent already. But there is an interesting point there. Not a day goes by now that a new report on global warming does not make it into the paper, and surely it doesn't get more topical?

I think current tv is a shining example in the online video space of a new online TV brand benefiting from their founder's (that would be Al Gore incase you didn't know) wonderful foray into political movie making. An inconvenient truth was one of my favourite movies of last year, and not because he takes the title of 'most politically ineffectual documentary maker' from Michael Moore.

Here's a good example of a current.tv vid about global warming. I'm regularly amazed at the quality of production in current TV, in particular because i rarely see advertising or a business model to speak of. But it is there.

Good Ol Al has negotiated a fantastic deal that puts his best user generated content onto network television in the US and UK via its own channel, and exposes his top talent to the warm fuzzy revenues that poor into traditional television. The best voted content from the site get the call up to the small screen and make $1000 too , so its one big happy community. He certainly does have a great community building itself there, and what i think will become a great brand. Its user generated content that puts the backstreet mimes on Youtube to shame. And the user generated ads are a stroke of genius. I'm just wondering what he's going to do when the honey pot falls out of the TV ad market as brands finally get fed up.

Oh don't worry about Al, the bottom will fall into the top of the internet video ad market. Al's laughing his way to the bank ... or is that another run at the presidency ...